středa 10. června 2009

EP elections: 5 years after

The election is over, with some good news and some bad news. The bad news is that with a low turnout, the right-wing extremists passed 1% threshold to qualify for a state subsidy. (Should we even call them right wing guys? I recall a conservative columnist Jaromir Zegklitz who himself considers a genuine right-winger, pointing out that "...these are not extreme rightwingers but crooks".)

Exactly five years ago I did some research on e-campaign prior to the EP 2004 election, summarized in a 6th chapter of a book published in Routledge by people from New York and Oxford. At that time, I show, an online campaign served as a valuable signal of preelectoral effort, and electoral success. Especially for newcomers, correlation btw web sphere development index and electoral result was 0.7. Table 6.4, p. 86, gives an idea on how the index related to the electoral gain over national 2002 elections.

I don't know if the same story works in 2009 with a developed blogosphere, but given a widespread opinion that "Public Enemy No. 1 for Facebook generation is Chairman of Socialists, Mr Jiri Paroubek" (see Milos Cermak's blog in Czech) I bet there's a grain of salt in this.